As soon as it became obvious here at the Obama celebration in Raleigh that today’s primaries had ended in a split decision–a crushing 15-point win for Obama in N.C., a narrower, perhaps four-point victory for Clinton in Indiana–Obama communications director Robert Gibbs and chief strategist David Axelrod gathered a small group of reporters on a terrace overlooking the parking lot and did what they did best: spin. “We think we won a really big victory here tonight,” said Axelrod. “It ensures that regardless of what happens in Indiana that we are going to extend our delegate lead… The important thing is that this was not a game changer, folks, in any way, shape or form.”
It was a funny formulation–“a really big victory” that was, nonetheless, “not a game changer.” But Axelrod’s description was accurate. After month of news cycles dominated by a string of popular-vote losses (Ohio, Pennsylvania and the Texas primary) and a series of scandel-ettes (Rev. Wright, Bittergate)–a period that even Axelrod admitted “wasn’t helpful”–Team Obama was happy to get a win on the board. As they see it, each contest that doesn’t slash Obama’s insurmountable lead in the pledged-delegate count or his near-insurmountable edge in the popular vote–or expands his leads, as tonight’s results probably will–puts them, in Gibbs’s words, one step “closer to the finish line.” For Obama, he implied, the less the game changes, the better.
His reason? The math. Asked whether he thought the race was over, Axelrod avoided answering–but made it clear that he’s not exactly perched on the edge of his seat. “The math is the math,” he said. Here, Gibbs chimed in. “The fact is, there are fewer delegates left to win in the primaries than superdelegates still up for grabs,” he said. “From this point on, Sen. Clinton would have to win 70 percent of all the remaining delegates, both superdelegates and pledged delegates, to reach a majority. And as far as superdelegates go, just looked at what we’ve rolled out since Feb. 5. That’s a tall order.”
“Despite the tortured constructions from the other side,” added Axelrod, with a grin.
The numbers game even extends to the arguments over Obama’s electability. While the Clinton camp would argue that her strength among white, working-class voters makes her a surer bet to beat John McCain come November, Obama’s aides disagree. Their counterargument: Obama can change the map. Citing North Carolina exit polls that showed a massive surge in new voter turnout (18 percent)–and a big Obama victory in the subgroup–Gibbs, a native Tar Heel, even speculated that his candidate could swing North Carolina into the Democratic column on Election Day. “Since 1992, there have been Democratic governors elected, Democratic congressmen,” he said. “With a concerted effort that expands the electorate in the fall, we could make a run at it. Look at what we did tonight with indepedents, with new voters, with young people. That’s what we need and want to win the general election.” As Obama loses the Average Joe vote yet again–despite Axelrod’s claims tonight that he “won among white voters under 60,” the Illinois senator actually lost in every white subgroup over 30–Gibbs is hoping the wary superdelegates are paying attention. Regardless, added Axelrod, “the Democrats will be united in the fall.”
Still, despite that show of comity, Obama’s guru couldn’t help but throw a final elbow. Noting that Republicans (who accounted for 11 percent of the vote in Indiana) chose Clinton over Obama 53 to 45, Axelrod credited none other than Rush Limbaugh. “Apparently, Rush has been urging Republicans to cross over and vote for Hillary,” he said. “It looks like tonight she was the beneficiary.” His point was clear: it was mischievous Republicans, not earnest Democrats, who had powered Clinton to her Hoosier State win. Whether or not that equation holds up–and early evidence suggests it may, with an estimated seven percent of those who voted for Clinton in Indiana not planning to support her in the fall–Axelrod and Co. probably have more than enough math on their side without it.
As we reentered Reynold Coliseum after the briefing, a classic Jackson 5 track blared over the PA. “A-B-C,” went the lyrics. “It’s easy as 1-2-3.” We’ll see soon enough whether the superdelegates agree.
