The 15-month U.S. mission in Somalia may not have accomplished much else, but it transformed Aidid from an obscure warlord into an international figure. Aidid eluded a five-month manhunt by U.S.-led forces, galvanizing supporters, before the United Nations lifted an arrest warrant in November. The first signs of his new stature came in December, when a U.S. Army plane flew him from Mogadishu to peace talks with other Somali factions in Addis Ababa. Aidid has since been a guest at the funeral of a Kenyan oppositionist, talked policy with the presidents of Kenya, Ethiopia and Uganda and met at least twice with Clinton’s special envoy to Somalia, Robert Oakley. Diplomats admit they’re leery about legitimizing a man whose guerrillas killed 18 U.S. soldiers on Oct. 3 but say they’re facing reality. “He has a tight organization and a plan,” says a Western diplomat in Mogadishu.
Aidid’s plan for now is to win by bargaining for what he failed to seize in battle. In a Nairobi hotel suite, Aidid is horse-trading with representatives from 12 Somali factions. The leaders are discussing power sharing in a transitional national government, floating such proposals as a revolving presidency and a cabinet representing the clans. Western diplomats are encouraged by Aidid’s willingness to talk but say he hasn’t dropped his longtime goal: the presidency. Says the Western diplomat: “If be doesn’t get it, he could come out shooting.”
Aidid is well positioned to make trouble. He is still “the biggest gorilla on the block,” says the outgoing U.S. forces commander, Gen. Thomas Montgomery. And he can take advantage of a continuing power vacuum. Mogadishu is plagued by freelance banditry; though a fragile truce is holding in the capital, clan violence threatens to explode elsewhere. With Americans and Europeans out, peacekeeping duty falls to a thinly spread U.N. force of about 19,000 troops, mostly from Malaysia, Pakistan and India. They will guard ports, airfields and other “security zones,” avoiding such provocative missions as house-to-house weapons searches. But U.N. officials aren’t ruling out a new challenge from Aidid’s fighters, who ambushed 24 Pakistani soldiers. If that happens, the United Nations will have to decide whether to fight back or leave Aidid and other factions to fight for the few spoils that remain.
