Why so confident? For one thing, Malaysian justice under Anwar’s former mentor and now chief accuser, Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, is also on trial, at least in the public eye. Hundreds of Anwar supporters turned up outside the courthouse every morning to shout “reformasi.” Official protests rang out from Washington to Manila when foreign diplomats were shut out of the first day of the trial. Wary of world opinion, Malaysian authorities planned to recess the trial next week during the 21-nation Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Kuala Lumpur. If anything, the opening days proved that this titanic courtroom drama would not play out as a Stalinesque show trial, as some critics claim.

For all his power, Mahathir could not simply choreograph the humiliation of his onetime protege. Anwar and his lawyers put up a spirited defense. And the prosecutors were embarrassed by theft own lead witness. The outgoing head of Special Branch Intelligence, Mohamed Said Awang, testified that at Anwar’s behest he had pressured two people who had first raised the allegations of sexual misconduct to recant. (One claimed Anwar had an affair with the wife of his private secretary, another claimed to have been his homosexual partner.) This was supposed to prove that Anwar had abused his power as deputy prime minister. But under cross-examination, Mohamed Said, who seemed slow and forgetful at times, even admitted he would lie under oath if ordered to do so. That did not boost his credibility as a prosecution witness. Nor did a 1997 document, introduced by the defense, in which Mohamed Said wrote that the sexual charges appeared to be the “baseless” fabrications of"a certain group" out to smear Anwar’s reputation. “In its overzealousness to convict Anwar, the prosecution is actually opening up a Pandora’s box of police and legal excesses that make the case against Anwar look ridiculous,” says Marina Yusoff, a Mahathir critic and former magistrate.

Could Mahathir actually lose this case? He has made clear his conviction that Anwar is guilty, and diplomatic observers say that has to weigh heavily on presiding Judge Augustine Paul. They note that a string of decisions has gone against Anwar. The judge denied his application for bail and for the dismissal of the corruption charges. (The defense had argued that the law under which those charges were brought has since been annulled.) “Even if there is no direct pressure being exerted on the judiciary,” says one Western legal observer, “everyone knows what the executive branch feels ought to be the outcome of this case.”

Such cases have gone Mahathir’s way in the past. When Mahathir chose to play down allegations of sexual impropriety against a leading lawmaker in 1990, and a rising star in his own ruling party in 1994, the charges were quietly dropped. Stories about Anwar were dismissed as rumor until he began to clash with his boss over how to steer Malaysia through the Asian financial crisis. “When it suits Mahathir he trivializes sex,” says Fan Yew Teng, a human-rights activist and former member of Parliament. “But if you are disloyal to the top, then Mahathir will make a big thing out of any allegations, like in Anwar’s case.”

The difference is that Mahathir has never attempted to crush a rival as powerful as Anwar, once his designated heir. That will make it more difficult for Mahathir to influence the proceedings as the trial moves probably by next month-from the corruption phase to five counts of “carnal intercourse against the order of nature” with five different men. Anwar faces up to 20 years’ imprisonment and a caning, but the charges could also rebound against his accusers. “If Anwar is acquitted it will be difficult for Mahathir to survive,” says Chandra Muzzafar, a professor of political science at the University of Malaya. “If he is convicted, and if people feel the evidence is overwhelmingly in his favor, then Anwar’s conviction won’t help Mahathir. Either way Mahathir will be in trouble.” That’s why this trial is more than a show: the ending has yet to be written, and the ringmaster himself is at risk.