The threat of force had the desired effect: the appearance of progress at the peace table. Late last week negotiators in Geneva produced an agreement to slice Bosnia into three ethnic ministates with a weak central government–essentially satisfying Serbian-Croatian plans to dismember the country. Under the terms, there is no national army or police force, no central bank or common currency. The new pact, signed reluctantly by Bosnian President Alija Izetbegovic, places the Muslims at an extreme political and economic disadvantage, and leaves open the most critical issue of how the country is to be divided. That outcome could even encourage new fighting. The latest cease-fire held for only a day; some observers thought the Geneva accord might not last much longer.
The administration was ready to keep the heat on. Senior U.S. officials vowed to make sure that the Bosnian Serbs and Croats–who control all but about 15 percent of the country-don’t rip the republic in two, leaving nothing for the Muslims and creating what one top official calls “an unappeasable ethnic and refugee crisis.” The administration wants to resolve the crisis before winter sets in, that source said, to avoid “irreversible humanitarian disaster.” The president’s top aides, NEWSWEEK has learned, recently considered, then rejected, the idea of ground troops. Still, U.S. sources say, the administration contacted European governments “at the highest level” to relay an uncompromising message: the United States intends to relieve the siege of Sarajevo.
The allies seemed willing to help this time. After last week’s attacks on U.N. troops in Sarajevo–at the Olympic Stadium and TV station–the Europeans decided they had rolled over long enough. At the weekend, while peace talks in Geneva proceeded, Washington called a meeting of the North Atlantic Council, NATO’s governing political body, to determine when and how airstrikes would be launched from Aviano, the Italian air base. Among the possible targets: Serbian artillery batteries and ammunition dumps, transport depots and routes, command-and-control centers and bridges over the Drina River.
In Sarajevo, the U.N. forces were preparing for airstrikes. NATO forward air controllers, who help direct strikes against artillery positions, were moving into place. A force of 3,000 mostly French U.N. troops-armed with 24 Panhard light tanks, each with a 90-mm gun was redeployed at the Zetra and Skenderija sports centers (map). These positions will serve as a tripwire for any Serb attacks eastward into the heart of Sarajevo.
Clinton clearly would rather threaten force than actually use it. But the Balkans are full of nasty surprises. The president’s difficult task is to scare the Serbs from grabbing more land without raising the hopes of the Bosnians that Western salvation is at hand. For 16 months of war, the Muslims of Bosnia pleaded for intervention. If it comes now, it may only enforce a peace agreement that spells the end of their homeland.
