That’s not patriotism; it’s a handy means of illustrating some new realities. Back during the cold war, the Barents–shared uneasily by Russia and Norway–was best known as a home for the prized Arctic cod and for hide-and-seek games between American and Soviet submarines. Today it’s set to become Europe’s energy Klondike, a last untapped pool of natural resources. Beneath the seabed lies not only oil but enough natural gas to meet much of the continent’s needs for decades. And it’s Norway that’s heading the exploration race, with a first field due to come on stream later this year. “This whole region is re-emerging as something new on the European radar screen,” says Store. “We have to go out with our maps and explain what it’s all about.”
He can expect an enthusiastic audience with European leaders ever more anxious for access to fresh energy supplies from friendly neighbors. These days Russia ranks as Europe’s principal source of natural gas, and evidence of the Kremlin’s readiness to use its status for political leverage has become frequent, whether it’s in pricing spats with Ukraine last winter or with Belarus last month. “What has changed is that Russia has begun using energy as a political tool,” says Dmitry Kisilev of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Strategic Studies Center. “Europeans fear that they will be next.”
The dwindling of the EU’s own gas supplies only intensifies those fears. The once abundant reserves in the North Sea are now in steep decline. Within 20 years, Britain could be 90 percent dependent on imported gas. The big consumers of Western Europe can look to other suppliers in the Middle East or North Africa–notably Algeria–to ease their dependence on Russia. But who wants to rely on distant countries of doubtful stability?
Small wonder, then, that Norway looks ever more attractive as a partner. Oslo has pledged that it won’t abuse its strength to play politics. Says Store: “We don’t take Russia as our role model.” A nation heavily dependent on its oil and gas revenues can’t afford to make enemies or relax its efforts to exploit its strengths. Last month its two biggest players in the oil and gas industry, Norsk Hydro and Statoil, announced a $30 billion merger to form the world’s biggest offshore operator.
Europe can indeed take comfort from Norway’s record. It’s not only a big player in the oil market but also the world’s third largest exporter of natural gas after Russia and Canada, doubling its foreign sales in the last six years. Exports to Europe are slated to rise by almost 50 percent over the next 15 years. These days it’s meeting some 25 percent of the needs of France, Germany and the United Kingdom, and expansion continues. Last summer saw the opening of the world’s longest undersea gas pipeline, at 1,200 kilometers, to carry supplies from the North Sea to a depot on the English coast. By 2011, Norway has promised to provide Europe with 135 billion cubic meters of gas a year, a rise of almost 50 percent on today’s figure.
Much may flow from the so-far-untapped Barents. In the midwinter polar darkness, workers on an island just off the port of Hammerfest–the northernmost settlement in Europe–are now busily completing a terminal to receive gas from the Snohvit (Snow White) field some 140 kilometers offshore, the first venture in the region. By the end of 2007, the plant will be receiving a steady flow of gas to be frozen and liquefied for export to Europe and the United States. “This is just the start,” says Sverre Kojedal of Statoil, the company responsible for the Snohvit field. “We think of the Barents Sea as Europe’s new oil and gas province.”
Sure, even the most determined optimist won’t pretend that Norway can match Russia as a long-term supplier. Quantity alone gives the Russian energy giant Gazprom unrivaled clout. “Russia is sitting on a quarter of the world’s natural gas,” says Bjorn Brunstad of Econ, the Nordic economic consultancy. Russia’s known reserves are estimated at 47.82 trillion cubic meters, compared with Norway’s total of just 2.41 trillion. Its gas field in the Barents, Shtokman, which is still awaiting exploitation, could be 10 times the size of Norway’s Snohvit. The wastelands of Siberia are believed to conceal still more generous reserves.
Besides, Norway is hindered by a tricky mix of political and ecological concerns that keep its operators away from what could be the richest patches of seabed. According to the World Wildlife Fund, the Barents is Europe’s “last unspoiled marine environment,” and worries over its possible pollution last summer persuaded the Oslo government to impose a five-year moratorium on exploring a promising area off its northern coast. At the same time, Norway and Russia are still struggling to resolve a 30-year dispute over their exact maritime border in the Barents that has so far kept rigs from both countries out of a 155,000-square-kilometer “gray zone.”
Nevertheless, if the outcome of future exploration matches the geologists’ best hopes, output from the Norwegian sector of the Barents could double by 2014. The technology is already moving ahead, fast opening up new possibilities. Forget rigs and costly plant above the water surface; thanks to some smart innovations, the Snohvit field will be drained by equipment resting on the seabed and operated remotely from onshore. In time, advances in technology may even allow for exploration beneath the polar ice. All that’s certain, as Foreign Minister Store well knows, is that the definitive map of Europe’s energy resources has still to be drawn.
