The move, which Pyongyang had begun warning was imminent on Oct. 3, ends years of intensive diplomacy aimed at preventing the isolated Stalinist state from developing a nuclear capability. It struck a blow to Chinese leader Hu Jintao, who just hours before the detonation hosted a breakthrough summit meeting with Japan’s new Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, which ended with a joint call for Pyongyang to refrain from testing a weapon and rejoin six-party talks. The test poses new dilemmas for U.S. president George W. Bush, who following the Sept. 11, 2001 terror attacks declared the North to be part of an “axis of evil” that also included Iraq and Iran. And it radically shifts the diplomatic ground for Japan, Korea’s former colonial occupier and the lynchpin U.S. ally in East Asia.
The destabilizing effect of Pyongyang’s move is potentially grave. South Korea’s Yonhap news agency says the test occurred in Hwadae County, a rural area facing eastward toward Japan that also is the location from which North Korea tested seven ballistic missiles (one of them capable of reaching U.S. territory) on July 4. South Korea’s Geological Resources Research Institute detected an earthquake measuring 3.6 on the Richter scale in the area around 10:30, a seismic event suggesting a yield of less than 10—roughly half the power of the atom bombs the United States dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. North Korea is believed to have enough weapons-grade plutonium for as many as 10 such weapons.
Analysts say Pyongyang will wield its small arsenal for maximum diplomatic leverage. China, though no doubt infuriated by the North’s rebuff of negotiations it sponsored, will come under renewed pressure to assure adequate food supplies to the isolated country, as it did following years of devastating famine in the 1990s. Likewise, South Korea will be pressed to continue its so-called ‘sunshine policy" of openness with the North. Even the United States—which most analysts agree has no attractive option for destroying Pyongyang’s arsenal without triggering a second Korean War—will be under the gun to talk. “Pyongyang will have veto power when pressed by others,” says Chun Bong Geun, a professor at the Korean Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security in Seoul. “When the U.S. says all options are on the table, including the military ones, North Korea may say: ‘well, go ahead.’”
In the long run, Pyongyang’s test could trigger an arms race in Asia. Japan, which now lacks the capability of striking North Korea pre-emptively should a missile launch targeting the country be deemed imminent, will likely step up efforts to develop such systems. In addition, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan all might contemplate building nuclear weapons of their own—a nightmare scenario for global non-proliferation efforts designed to prevent the kind of breakout North Korea achieved today.
