And then there were four. Only the two best teams of each conference remain in contest for the Stanly Cup and the games pick off already on Friday. Both regular season conference winners were eliminated on the second round and we will have if not a surprise champion, at least a major underdog lifting the Stanley Cup in June.
MORE: NHL live odds page
Here is Accuscore’s prediction for the Western Conference Final:
St. Louis Blues-San Jose Sharks
Sharks will progress with 52.2 percent probability. The most likely result of the series is 4-2 (18.9%)
The Sharks seem to have finally beaten their post season demons and are playing with great confidence in both ends of the rink. No single individual has jumped out of the quality roster, albeit Brent Burns has been on top of his game as have many others. There seems to be no weak point in their game at this point and it seems impossible to beat team for four times.
Same arguments go for the Blues, as well. They’ve surprised many by scoring a truckload of goals against the Starts, in addition to defending with grit as they always do. It has to be said though, that in the series against the Stars the opponent’s defense and goaltending were major letdowns and Blues got away with murder, if you consider the scores such as 6-1 in Game 7. It was not all that easy, but the Blues deserve their place in conference finals.
In simulations, the Sharks are on top, but just by a very small margin. Any game could turn towards either team and the score will likely remain low. Simulations have maybe undervalued Blues a little bit in the previous rounds, but Sharks have a small edge here despite being the away team. But it will be close, as always.
Pittsburgh Penguins-Tampa Bay Lightning
Penguins will progress with 55.3 percent probability. The most likely result of the series is 4-3 (17%)
The Penguins have been red hot for a couple of months now and got through the President’s Trophy-winning Capitals in six games, despite being outplayed in a couple. Their secondary scoring proved their worth as Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin were kept in check. The likes of Phil Kessel, Nick Bonino and Carl Hagelin manning the bottom six makes Penguins attack their best weapon. In goal, rookie Matt Murray has been in the zone for all his post-season games, making game savers when needed. The unproven defense is still a question mark, but effectively shutting down Capitals’ attack is a major scalp under their belt.
The Lightning have repeated their conference final spot from last season, when they went on to the Stanley Cup final to lose against Chicago. The team might be even better this year, with young core players more experienced. They certainly showed confidence in series against the Red Wings and Islanders, ending their opponents’ seasons 4-1. Accomplishing this without Steven Stamkos and Anton Strålman speaks of great depth in the Lightning roster and with the playing style matching Penguins it will be an extremely entertaining, fast paced and goal rich series. In simulations Penguins prevail after game seven, but as expected it will be a game of small margins all around.
Visit Accuscore.com to get free picks and stats on NFL, NBA and other sports. You can also get access to all of AccuScore’s high-powered data through its subscription service and run simulations yourself.
