Each week, AccuScore will update its 2018 Stanley Cup playoffs forecast by simulating the remainder of the NHL season 10,000 times to predict win totals, division winners and probabilities of reaching the playoffs on the road to the Stanley Cup. Below are the probabilities and Vegas odds of making the NHL playoffs and how they have changed.
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AccuScore’s odds to make NHL playoffs
Probability vs. weekly % change
Eliminated from playoff contention (0.00%): Buffalo Sabres, Montreal Canadiens, Ottawa Senators, Edmonton Oilers, Vancouver Canucks, Arizona Coyotes, Chicago Blackhawks, Detroit Red Wings
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Eastern Conference playoff picture
Tampa Bay, Boston, Toronto, Pittsburgh and Washington can start to prepare for playoffs, but there are three more spots available in the Eastern Conference. Currently the Philadelphia Flyers, the Columbus Blue Jackets and New Jersey Devils are sitting on the right side of the playoff line. The Devils improved their probabilities after halting a losing skid, as their chances to reach the postseason increased by 12 percent from last week. And the Blue Jackets have won six games in a row to improve their postseason chances to 86 percent. Basically, the only team that can replace New Jersey (or Columbus or Philadelphia) is the Florida Panthers . They have two games in hand on New Jersey. And thought the Panthers’ playoffs probability has dropped a bit, they still have 42 percent chance to reach the postseason.
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Western Conference playoff picture
In the Western Conference, last year’s Stanley Cup finalist Nashville Predators, the Winnipeg Jets and the surprising expansion Vegas Golden Knights are all but playoff locks. But for other five spots, the story is much more interesting. Minnesota, San Jose, Los Angeles, Colorado and Dallas currently hold the inside track, but Accuscore’s simulations project the Anaheim Ducks to reach the playoffs over the Avalanche. Anaheim’s postseason probability is currently 68 percent and Colorado’s probability is 61 percent — a slight advantage, even after the Ducks’ playoff probability dropped by 20 percent week over week and Colorado’s increased by 24 percent. Another big drop in playoffs probabilities can be seen for the Stars; they’re 16 percent less probable than a week ago. The Calgary Flames are ninth and St. Louis Blues 10th looking into wild-card spots. Simulations show St. Louis has better chances for the postseason at 34 percent compared to the Flames (19 percent).
AccuScore’s NHL playoff probabilities will be updated on a weekly basis.
