Several games tonight have an over/under of six based on Vegas odds. Keep in mind, Vegas is not always right, though. Watch for potentially higher scoring matchups, like Toronto-Calgary and Dallas-Vegas, for example. Even Tampa Bay-Buffalo could easily go over six goals combined.
MORE: SN DFS | DFS Lineup Builder
Because of the volatile nature of goalies (and other reasons), there will be more information on social media coming closer to roster lock. Don’t be afraid to ask questions. If you are looking for even more advice and insight, please check me out on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS. Let’s get into tonight’s value picks after a visit from the RotoQL optimizer.
Tuesday NHL DFS Picks: Center values
Dylan Strome, Arizona vs. Edmonton (DraftKings $2,900, FanDuel $3,000)
Again, Tuesday features myriad higher profile options. Strome is an good punt option because of his minimum price. It all depends on what line he gets placed on. Do not expect much power play time. Consider that Strome had 26 points in 15 games for Tucson in the AHL. The third overall pick will be eased in on the wing on Tuesday night and is likely to draw depth matchups and a high offensive zone start percentage. With the 10-game slate, there is a enough room to set up a few different lineups that are outside the limits of being safe. This can even be a nice one-off if needed. It can be part of a mini stack like mentioned above.
The good news is there are several other options as far as value on Tuesday night. Even Adrian Kempe and Christian Dvorak will be nice shelter despite their slightly rising DraftKings prices. Vegas and Tampa’s first lines will have some ownership potential. Remember, extreme chalk can be as long as know what to expect.
Other Options: William Karlsson (chalky), John Tavares and Connor McDavid (chalky), Anze Kopitar, Auston Matthews (less risk – high shot rate per 60), Mika Zibanejad (GPP only), Sean Couturier, Kyle Turris, Sean Monahan.
Crazy Value Possible: Christian Dvorak (contrarian value), Erik Haula (DraftKings only – extreme risk), Ryan Strome (moderately high-risk wing on FanDuel)
Tuesday Daily Fantasy Hockey Picks: Winger values
Michael Ferland, Calgary vs. Toronto (DraftKings $4,500, FanDuel $4,900)
Ferland is on a bit of a roll, as he has exceeded value in four of his past five games. Toronto yields well over 30 shots per 60 on the road and has to rely on Frederik Andersen to be razor sharp. Toronto is going to have a hard time slowing down Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan. This may leave Ferland some space, and his price still just reasonable enough given his playing time.
Toronto will be a play, as well, because of their strong power play. Both teams can make this case as we did on Fantasy Hockey X (also on iTunes) last night. The late games and Tampa Bay are going to feature some of the higher plays on Tuesday. There are plenty of choices, including Nashville against a tired Chicago team. Even some of San Jose’s wingers could be useful against a Philadelphia team that allowed 52 shots to Pittsburgh. Depth matchups have potential.
Alex Tuch, Anthony Duclair, and Mattias Janmark are all nice low-price options on DraftKings tonight. With this slate, even these riskier plays are viable. On a few lineups, these forwards may be worth a shot. Even the second line of the Islanders merits some play, and do not forget Matthew Barzal centering the trio.
Other Options: Jordan Eberle (lower owned than usual), Nikita Kucherov (near chalk), Jonathan Marchessault, Jakub Voracek, Tyler Toffoli, Joe Pavelski (GPP only), Chris Kreider. Brock Boeser, Viktor Arvidsson/Filip Forsberg (it’s Tuesday!). Boone Jenner, Anthony Mantha (high risk GPP flier). More plays will be on social media.
Crazy Value Possible: Trevor Lewis, Christian Fischer (high risk), Kevin Fiala, Brandon Perlini, Sam Gagner (dangerous risk).
Tuesday NHL DFS Advice: Defensemen picks, values
Shea Theodore, Vegas vs Dallas (DraftKings $3,600, FanDuel $3,500)
Choices are abundant among defensemen on Tuesday night. Theodore shoots at moderate levels typically and has block potential of two or three shots a game. On occasion, he will block more shots than usual. That sounds a bit risky, but Dallas can easily give up three or four goals on the road. Shots on goal could easily be higher for Vegas, but Dallas can put up some shots, too. This means more chances for points in the conventional and not so conventional. Most will concentrate on the fact that Vegas plays at a mid-event pace at home, yet Dallas is one of the worst teams in the league at allowing quality scoring chances on the road.
Theodore has exceeded value in three straight contests and again will be utilized to set up for offense tonight. Vegas shoots absurdly well at home, though at some point that will regress some. However, even then, there should be enough chances for the Vegas defenseman to come in with a solid floor at least. Plus, this will save money for all those higher-priced choices and stacks.
The defenseman position has lots of possibilities. PK Subban could be a semi-chalky yet good choice because Chicago may be starting Anton Forsberg and is not the rested team. Nick Leddy is intriguing against Vancouver but expensive, so remember that when constructing lineups. Morgan Rielly and Ivan Provorov are mid-priced options that could deliver against Calgary and San Jose, respectively.
Other Options: Brent Burns (not as chalky), Seth Jones, John Klingberg and Roman Josi (nearly chalk), Drew Doughty (less risk), Shayne Gostisbehere, Nate Schmidt, Aaron Ekblad, Dougie Hamilton (will be under owned), Nick Leddy, Duncan Keith (could surprise tonight), Rasmus Ristolainen.
Crazy Value Possible: Noah Hanifin, Darnell Nurse, Tim Heed (high risk), Deryk Engelland (Dangerous risk).
Tuesday Daily Fantasy Hockey Advice: Goalie picks, values
Aaron Dell, San Jose @ Philadelphia (DraftKings $7,300, FanDuel $7,700)
Dell got knocked around pretty good in his previous two starts but has been good when called upon. The injury to Martin Jones opens the door for a game or two, and the San Jose backup is more than capable. One of the problems with this game is trying to guess if it will be a low-event or higher-event game. Therein lies the problem.
Dell is a risky GPP option on DraftKings and FanDuel. That leaves the dilemma of who else to play. The San Jose goalie could get hammered, but he also could surprise everyone again. Even Cam Talbot has drifted into the cheaper range with Pekka Rinne and even Andrei Vasilevskiy as cash options (albeit expensive) for Tuesday night. Again, remember cash is more about win potential whereas GPPs are more about save count where the win is a bonus.
The emphasis will be to wait until closer to lock (7 p.m. ET) for any line shifts and goalie changes, etc. Also, watch for injuries and returns tonight as some projections may be impacted.
Other Options: Scott Darling (DraftKings only), Cam Talbot (mostly cash), Frederik Andersen (moderate risk), Pekka Rinne (mostly cash), Jonathan Quick (chasing the win potential). More choices will come closer to lock.
NHL DFS Picks for Tuesday: Top Lines to Stack
These are based on RotoQL lineup optimizer projections. Coming soon, this will be a space where we dive into even more of what the optimizer spits out.
TBL 1 – 1 will be owned at a moderately high rate but not mega chalk like some are predicting. NYI 1 – Is nearly $20,000 on DraftKings. Can pair Leddy with Tavares plus other options including even Boychuk for a measure of salary relief. Just play McDavid – Sometimes chalk is okay and pair him with one of the defenseman and/or power play reinforcements. VGK 1 – One of the hotter lines in the league against and still pretty cheap stack wise. LAK 2 (Some think LAK 1 will be higher owned – can use parts) ARZ 1 or 2 for contrarian value DAL 2 – Watch for Seguin even in what could be a mid-event game. Note we said “could”… TOR PP 1 – Arguably projected higher but Mike Smith always carries risk (he could easily stop 40-plus shots). NSH 1 or 2 – Another line with good value. Can even pair Forsberg or Arvidsson with one of the cheaper wings on their line or Subban/Josi. Chicago on the back end of a back to back in the midst of a five games in seven nights stretch. These lines will pick up ownership as day goes on. SJ PP 1 – Very risky but just stay away from Joe Thornton. PHI 1 can be used but just does not project quite as well.
These are just a few lines. As updates become more available, there will be more on social media. Watch to see who plays. That will swing ownership a little bit. One of the major tips for lineup construction will be to start trusting some of the numbers a little more. We’re almost eight weeks into the season and trends are establishing themselves. Our spotlight picks feature more value, which can mean more inherent risk.
NHL DFS Strategy: Reviewing what went wrong
This is always going to be a section full of “hindsight is 20/20”. However, Monday’s five-game slate was scary yet simple. If you did not play Carey Price (37 saves), there was trouble as Columbus could only solve him once. Also, playing Chicago’s power play as a stack and Vincent Trocheck paid nearly double-digit per-player dividends on DraftKings. More ownership was on that Chicago-Anaheim contest. Chicago did get a hat trick from Alex DeBrincat, but Patrick Kane was held mostly in check. Sometimes the perception of chalk is relative to what plays one attaches the chalk to.
