The preparations for NHL season 2016-2017 are on their way, beginning from the draft at midsummer and still ongoing with the free agent frenzy. The biggest headlines were of course created by Montreal Canadiens, who acquired Shea Weber from Nashville by sending P.K. Subban packing and Edmonton Oilers who let go of Taylor Hall in exchange to Adam Larsson.
Top tier free agents have also found their new — or sometimes old — homes. Using Accuscore’s season simulations, we picked the winners of this offseason so far.
MORE: Winners and losers from NHL free agency, trades
Canadian Blockbusters
It was well known that Edmonton Oilers were looking for a first-pair defenseman, playing on the right hand side. Maybe that’s why the price was high when Adam Larsson arrived to Alberta as one of the best point even strength point producers Taylor Hall moved the other way. Larsson is exactly what Oilers were looking for, being already proven, young and affordable defenseman with great upside. For the Devils, Hall will be by far their best offensive forward and brings a boatload of scoring potential.
Controversial character P.K. Subban was adored by fans, but somewhat shunned by the front office for whatever reason. He found a new home in Nashville, which was ready to part with their constant Norris-candidate, captain and defensive backbone Shea Weber. Both of the players scored the same amount of points (51), but Weber scored 20 goals against Subban’s six. Their playing styles differ though: Weber is more of a defensive juggernaut with excellent puck moving skills and a cannon of a shot, while Subban is a mobile, puck-carrying type who creates a lot of highlights.
Of these trades, Accuscore’s season simulations deem New Jersey Devils the biggest winners. With the acquisition of Taylor Hall, the Devils added four wins in their season prediction, moving them very close to a playoff spot with 88 points.
Simulations indicate that the Oilers lost one win in the trade. However, they moved at once to add Milan Lucic to replace Hall’s production, and can now challenge for a playoff spot in the West with 88 points.
The trade between Montreal and Nashville didn’t impact the teams one way or another, according to the simulations. Both players produce the same amount of points with similar time on ice.
Free Agent Frenzy
Frenzy started this year the way it was expected to. The owners paid $335M during the first hour of the frenzy and the dominoes started to fall.
The biggest star of the free agency, Steven Stamkos decided to continue his hunt for the Stanley Cup with the Lightning, who went on to lose the final in 2015 and the Eastern Conference finals in 2016. The core of the team remain the same and in Accuscore’s simulations for 2016-17 the Lightning achieve 105 points taking the third spot in the East.
The up and coming Florida Panthers surprisingly won the Atlantic division last season. With their young and productive offense staying intact, they’ve now bolstered the defense with two big name signings: Keith Yandle and Jason Demers. Yandle scored 47 points last season and will easily replace Chicago-bound Brian Campbell in every aspect. Jason Demers will pick the spot left empty by Erik Gudbranson’s trade to Vancouver and is suited for the all-around role. In Accuscore season simulations Panthers saw the biggest improvement in point total, as they rose from the playoff battle of 99 points into the top-4 with 104 points.
The Stanley Cup finalist San Jose Sharks have already their table set for next season, the same as reigning champions Pittsburgh Penguins. Both teams will survive the summer without any big losses. San Jose even added more scoring potential and depth to their already impressive offense by acquiring Mikkel Boedker from Colorado. Last season Boedker scored altogether 51 points for the Coyotes and Avalanche. Penguins are yet to make a move, but have only lost Ben Lovejoy. Both of the last year’s finalists man the top of their conferences in Accuscore simulations.
Replacements and depth
Most of the free agents signings are used to cover for a loss of a player or adding depth to lower units. Not often there are impact players available to add to quality roster, mostly because of the salary-cap issues. This summer has seen New York Islanders replace Kyle Okposo, who went to Buffalo with Andrew Ladd. Boston added David Backes from St. Louis in the wake of Louie Eriksson’s departure and then Blues got David Perron back from Anaheim. In similar way Minnesota let underachieving veteran Tomas Vanek go to Detroit, while acquiring another underachieving veteran in Eric Staal. In addition to Vanek, Detroit also added a replacement for Russia-bound Pavel Datsyuk in form of Frans Nielsen, whom Islanders then replaced by bringing back P.A. Parenteau.
The trades mentioned above create only small ripples in Accuscore simulations and it’s impossible to tell the winners and losers by the numbers. Of course the simulation doesn’t take into consideration the salary-cap implications, player’s age or any unmeasurable capabilities, which may turn the tables during a long regular season.
