They had all the underdogs in last night’s three key football games. Stanford (+11) was a Massey-Peabody Big Play and won outright, derailing Oregon’s quest for a national title for the second year in a row. The Vikings, an Other Play at +2.5, beat the visiting Redskins, 34-27.
Only Oklahoma, a Break-Even or Better pick, failed to get the cash as a 15-point underdog at still-undefeated Baylor.
Our partners are now 36-25-1 in the NFL on the season, and after going 18-31 through the first five weeks of college, they’re 29-15-1 since.
Onto this week’s NFL selections, of which there are many. Massey-Peabody offer up four best bets.
Aaron Rodgers’ injury has resulted in a 9-point line swing in Sunday’s Eagles-Packers game. That’s a “massive” overreaction by the market, according to Rufus Peabody, who says there’s only about a 4-point difference between Rodgers and Seneca Wallace. As of Friday afternoon, Green Bay is a 1-point favorite; the spread should be closer to -6, says Rufus.
Also, Rufus is not a believer in Case Keenum and made the defensively-strong Cardinals a 7-point favorite over the Texans. The spread sits at a field goal.
The Quants are also on Carolina, who they rate as the second-best team in the NFL, as a 6.5-point dog at San Francisco.
Finally, Sunday’s primetime offering matches up two teams Massey-Peabody see as more evenly-matched than the betting line indicates. The Saints are the sixth-best team in the league; the Cowboys are the seventh-best.
The Saints have covered 14 straight at home with Sean Payton on the sidelines. But value is more important than trends, and this spread, Rufus thinks, should be closer to a field goal than a touchdown.
Lines are from the South Point as of 1 p.m. ET Friday. Massey-Peabody's lines are listed in brackets.
Big Plays (7-5-1 YTD) • Arizona -3 vs. Houston [MP= -7.1] • Green Bay -1 vs. Philadelphia [MP= -6.0] • Dallas +6.5 at New Orleans [MP= +2.7] • Carolina +6.5 at San Francisco [MP= +2.6]
Other Plays (22-14 YTD) • Minnesota +2.5 vs. Washington [MP= -2.3]. Winner! • Cincinnati -1.5 at Baltimore [MP= -3.5] • Atlanta +5.5 vs. Seattle [MP= +3.3]
Break-Even or Better (8-6 YTD) • San Diego +7 vs. Denver [MP= +5.1]
