The Detroit Lions have proven to be a fantastic against the spread bet over the past two seasons since hiring Dan Campbell as head coach. Detroit is 17-10 ATS under Campbell’s tutelage, and are 5-0 ATS in the last five games as they play host to the NFC North-leading Minnesota Vikings on Sunday.
When the New York Jets played against the Buffalo Bills in an AFC East showdown during Week 9, they won and covered in a 20-17 victory as 10.5-point home underdog. Going to Buffalo, oddsmakers remain unimpressed by the Jets. New York will take the field as 10-point road underdogs.
These two key divisional matchups are highlighting the best bets among our Week 14 NFL picks.
Week 14 NFL Picks
Lions -2 vs. Vikings
Detroit whipped the Jacksonville Jaguars 40-14 last week as 1-point home favorites. The 5-7 Lions are 4-1 straight up in the last five games, and are suddenly outside contenders for an NFC Wild Card playoff spot.
Detroit lost 28-24 at Minnesota in Week 3, but covered as 6.5-point road underdogs. The Lions are 18-9 ATS in their last 27 games as underdogs and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games. They are also 7-0 ATS in their last seven games against NFC North opposition. Detroit is 4-3 ATS facing current playoff teams and 3-1 ATS when opposing current division leaders.
The Lions have scored over 31 points in three of the past four games and allowed fewer than 20 points in three of the last five games. This line opened with the 10-2 Vikings as the 2.5-point away chalk.
At the moment, though, the betting public seems to have some doubts about Detroit. In the NFL public betting splits at DraftKings, it’s Minnesota that is getting the majority of handle and bet action on both the point spread and the moneyline. Minnesota’s only losses have come at the hands of the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys, arguably the two best teams in the NFC.
Minnesota is 9-1 SU over the past 10 games and 5-1-1 ATS through the last seven games. While the Vikings are 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings with Detroit, Minnesota is just 1-4 ATS in the last five games against the Lions.
Jets +10 vs. Bills
The 7-5 Jets just can’t seem to get any love and in some sense, perhaps that’s understandable. In Mike White, they are, after all, on their third starting quarterback of the season.
In two games under White’s direction, the Jets have averaged 476 yards of total offense. They’ve scored over 20 points in successive games for the first time since a three-game run from Weeks 4-6.
Zach Wilson was under center when the Jets beat 9-3 Buffalo earlier this season. That win was part of a six-game stretch that saw New York’s AFC East club go 5-1 ATS. The Jets are 4-2 ATS on the road this season, but 0-2 ATS in their last two road games.
New York is 3-0 ATS in the last three games that the Jets were a double-digit underdog. Buffalo is 0-2 ATS in the last two games that the Bills were double-digit favorites.
Buffalo is 3-2 ATS at home this season, but just 2-4 ATS in the past six games overall. The Bills are 4-1 SU in the last five games facing the Jets and 7-3 ATS in the past 10 meetings between these two AFC East rivals. But Buffalo is 1-2 SU against AFC East opponents so far this season.
Panthers +3.5 vs. Seahawks
At one juncture this season, the Carolina Panthers were in the midst of an 0-9 ATS skid. It might not seem like a good week to bet on the team that jettisoned QB Baker Mayfield, only to see him end the six-game losing streak of the Los Angeles Rams, but hear us out. Playing Carolina right now is a good idea.
While they may be 4-8 SU, the Panthers are 6-6 ATS and 5-1 ATS in the past six games. In the dismal NFC South, 4-8 means you’re still a contender for the divisional title. However, Carolina is 0-5 SU on the road this season, but 2-1 ATS in the last three games away from home.
There’s a bit of a Jets intrigue to this game, seeing as both starting QBs - Sam Darnold of the Panthers and Geno Smith of the Seahawks - are Jets castoffs. Seattle struggles to stop the run and Panthers running back D’Onta Foreman has gone over 100 yards in four of Carolina’s past six games.
Seattle opened as 7-point home favorites, but that line has since been cut in half. At 7-5, the Seahawks are holding an NFC Wild Card playoff spot and still have the NFC West crown in their sights. However, Seattle looks to be coming back down to earth after soaring early in the season. The Seahawks are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS in the past three games.
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