After a loaded day of football on Thanksgiving, Week 12 of the NFL season continues on Sunday, November 27, with only a slightly smaller slate than normal, thanks to no teams being on bye. Bettors have lines for 12 games to dissect in making their NFL picks.
Here are the lines I have come across that I simply cannot say no to.
Week 12 NFL Picks
Chargers vs. Cardinals Over 48
My first pick of Week 12 isn’t as much about the offenses playing in this game, but rather the lousy defenses. The Cardinals have allowed the second-most points in the league, giving up 26.9 points per game.
They have also now allowed 31+ points in four of their last five, and those offenses haven’t really been the cream of the crop. The Vikings, who rank 13th in points scored, and the Saints, who rank 15th, each put up 34 points on the Arizona defense.
The Chargers haven’t been much better, allowing 25.8 points per game, the fourth-most in the NFL.
On top of the Swiss cheese defenses that we’ll see in this game, both offenses are expecting to get key players back in their lineups. Arizona’s Kyler Murray should return after a two-game absence, and Los Angeles will get their top wide receiver Keenan Allen back at full strength for the first time since Week 1.
Call it good offense or bad defense. Either way, I expect a lot of points to be scored in this one.
New York Jets -6 (vs. Bears)
There is no way I was touching the Jets as 4.5-point favorites when this spread opened, as Zach Wilson was still believed to be the starter. However, with Mike White now confirmed to be starting under center, the spread jumped to Jets -6 and I don’t think that’s a big enough move.
Though White did throw for 405 yards in one of his three starts last season, I am not looking at him to come in and torch this Bears’ defense. He doesn’t need to, either. White just needs to be serviceable.
The Jets’ defense ranks in the top 10 in both yards and points allowed. New York has only allowed more than 20 points in four games this season and only once in their last seven.
Justin Fields does present a very unique threat with him being so great carrying the ball as well. However, the Jets are not going to deal with a healthy Fields in Week 12 and may not even see him at all. The second-year QB is dealing with what he called a separated left shoulder he suffered in Chicago’s Week 11 loss to the Falcons. If he plays, I don’t foresee Fields being very comfortable running into contact.
Give me a serviceable Mike White and the Jets to cover this spread.
NFL Teaser: Dolphins -6.5 and 49ers -2.5 and Chiefs -6.5 (+116)
Just as I did on Thanksgiving, I am also parlaying some alternate spreads together to create a teaser that pays better than one-to-one. If you’re more confident in the Chiefs and Dolphins running up the score against the Rams and Texans, respectively, you can just take each at -9.5 and get up to +180 odds on this teaser.
The Miami Dolphins, who are fresh off their bye, take not the Houston Texans in Week 12. Miami is listed as 14.5-point favorites over Houston, who have decided to bench Davis Mills and will start Kyle Allen. I don’t see this change making much of a difference for the Texans, but am going to tease this spread down to Miami -6.5 just in case a QB change does manage to spark the team.
The 49ers are starting to find their groove with Jimmy Garoppolo under center and Christian McCaffrey appearing to be fully integrated into the offense. In spite of beating the Rams last week, the Saints have not looked good lately. Andy Dalton is going to turn the ball over, but I just don’t trust Jimmy to cover an 8.5-point spread; so I’m taking this one down to 2.5.
Kansas City is listed as 15.5-point favorites over the Rams in Week 12. LA prepares to start Bryce Perkins at quarterback, whose legs might actually give this Cooper Kupp-less offense a spark. It won’t be enough of a spark to keep this game within a touchdown, though.
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